China’s “2025 Justice Mission” Drill: Incremental Pressure, Managed Escalation, and Diminishing Deterrent Returns
The source characterizes China’s late-2025 “2025 Justice Mission” exercise as a multi-purpose operation combining Taiwan-focused rehearsal, A2/AD signalling, and political messaging to the US and Japan. It suggests the drill’s incremental “firsts” increased pressure near Taiwan’s waters while avoiding higher-risk live-fire actions that could expose capability limits or trigger escalation ahead of anticipated 2026 diplomacy.