// Global Analysis Archive
Morgan Stanley expects China’s housing slump to persist in 2026, forecasting a further 2–3% decline in new home prices amid reactive, risk-focused policymaking and weak buyer sentiment. High inventories and falling sales values are expected to prolong the adjustment, with potential stabilisation in tier-1 and major tier-2 cities only from 2H 2027 under supportive macro conditions.
Morgan Stanley expects China’s housing slump to persist, forecasting new-home prices could fall another 2–3% in 2026 amid reactive, incremental policy support and weak buyer sentiment. Elevated inventories and sharper secondary-market declines suggest stabilisation may not arrive until 2H 2027 in higher-tier cities, with lower-tier markets taking longer.
Morgan Stanley expects China’s housing slump to persist in 2026, forecasting a further 2–3% decline in new home prices amid reactive, risk-focused policymaking and weak buyer sentiment. High inventories and falling sales values are expected to prolong the adjustment, with potential stabilisation in tier-1 and major tier-2 cities only from 2H 2027 under supportive macro conditions.
Morgan Stanley expects China’s housing slump to persist, forecasting new-home prices could fall another 2–3% in 2026 amid reactive, incremental policy support and weak buyer sentiment. Elevated inventories and sharper secondary-market declines suggest stabilisation may not arrive until 2H 2027 in higher-tier cities, with lower-tier markets taking longer.
| ID | Title | Category | Date | Views | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RPT-322 | Morgan Stanley Sees China Housing Downturn Extending Into 2026 as Inventory and Confidence Weigh | China Property | 2026-01-29 | 0 | ACCESS » |
| RPT-2332 | Morgan Stanley Sees China Housing Downcycle Extending Into 2026 as Inventory and Confidence Weigh | China Property | 2025-12-18 | 0 | ACCESS » |