China’s Property Downshift: Contained Financial Stress, Structural Growth Drag
According to GAM Investments, China’s housing downturn has primarily impaired highly leveraged developers and confidence, while mortgage credit quality at major banks remains relatively contained due to conservative underwriting and sizable down payments. The adjustment is increasingly structural—lower long-run housing demand is expected to weigh on GDP, reinforcing policy emphasis on technology, advanced manufacturing, green transition, and domestic demand.