// Global Analysis Archive
An ISW-AEI update reports US hesitation over a major Taiwan air and missile defense arms package amid planned Trump-Xi diplomacy, warning that delays could invite further PRC demands. The same report highlights suspected AIS spoofing near New Taipei and broader PRC efforts in international messaging, nuclear posture narratives, and South China Sea land reclamation.
A large PLA exercise on Dec. 29–30, 2025 simulated blockade and amphibious seizure operations near Taiwan while China Coast Guard activity tested gray-zone thresholds. The episode sharpened U.S. congressional focus on accelerating arms transfers, but delivery backlogs and Taiwan’s domestic budget politics may constrain near-term deterrence.
China launched large-scale, multi-domain exercises around Taiwan featuring live-fire activity and scenarios consistent with port isolation and blockade rehearsal, according to the source. The drills follow a reported $11.1 billion U.S. weapons package for Taiwan and have already disrupted civilian air and sea traffic, increasing escalation and miscalculation risks.
According to the source, the PLA conducted large-scale ‘Justice Mission 2025’ exercises around Taiwan on Dec. 29, 2025, including blockade simulations, live-fire strikes, and amphibious-relevant training. The reported parallel involvement of the China Coast Guard suggests a layered coercion approach that increases escalation ambiguity and maritime risk.
An ISW-AEI update reports US hesitation over a major Taiwan air and missile defense arms package amid planned Trump-Xi diplomacy, warning that delays could invite further PRC demands. The same report highlights suspected AIS spoofing near New Taipei and broader PRC efforts in international messaging, nuclear posture narratives, and South China Sea land reclamation.
A large PLA exercise on Dec. 29–30, 2025 simulated blockade and amphibious seizure operations near Taiwan while China Coast Guard activity tested gray-zone thresholds. The episode sharpened U.S. congressional focus on accelerating arms transfers, but delivery backlogs and Taiwan’s domestic budget politics may constrain near-term deterrence.
China launched large-scale, multi-domain exercises around Taiwan featuring live-fire activity and scenarios consistent with port isolation and blockade rehearsal, according to the source. The drills follow a reported $11.1 billion U.S. weapons package for Taiwan and have already disrupted civilian air and sea traffic, increasing escalation and miscalculation risks.
According to the source, the PLA conducted large-scale ‘Justice Mission 2025’ exercises around Taiwan on Dec. 29, 2025, including blockade simulations, live-fire strikes, and amphibious-relevant training. The reported parallel involvement of the China Coast Guard suggests a layered coercion approach that increases escalation ambiguity and maritime risk.
| ID | Title | Category | Date | Views | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RPT-1677 | Summit Leverage, Air Defense, and Spoofed Signals: Cross-Strait Pressure Points Intensify | Taiwan | 2026-02-25 | 0 | ACCESS » |
| RPT-195 | PLA ‘Justice Mission 2025’ Drill Near Taiwan Highlights Deterrence Gaps and Delivery Bottlenecks | Taiwan | 2025-11-19 | 1 | ACCESS » |
| RPT-3384 | China Expands Blockade-Oriented Drills Around Taiwan After Record U.S. Arms Package | Taiwan Strait | 2025-10-07 | 0 | ACCESS » |
| RPT-3745 | PLA ‘Justice Mission 2025’ Drills Signal Intensifying Multi-Domain Pressure Around Taiwan | PLA | 2025-07-09 | 0 | ACCESS » |